VIEWPOINT FROM LONDON

ASHDOWN GOT IT WRONG!

by Brian Gallagher

The Croatian Herald, Australia No. 957 - 7 March 2003

 

Paddy Ashdown's story of his conversation with late Croatian President Franjo Tudjman over Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) needs to be re-assessed. That conversation convinced Ashdown that Croatia's Operation Storm was part of a Milosevic/Tudjman plan to partition BiH. This was accepted by judges at the Hague trial of Croat General Blaskic. But Ashdown got it wrong; it was the United States that determined the course of Operation Storm.

In May 1995 Ashdown was seated next to Tudjman in London at a banquet held to celebrate VE day.

Ashdown asked Tudjman to outline how BiH would look in ten years time, utilising a crudely drawn map on a menu. Tudjman allegedly stated that BiH would effectively be partitioned between Croatia and Serbia. He also told Ashdown that "Krajina" - occupied Croatia that is - would be recaptured by Croatian forces. Ashdown has testified to this effect in the Blaskic and Milosevic trials and it is related in his published diaries.

When Croatia's Operation Storm took place in August 1995 to recapture most of occupied Croatia, Ashdown released details of the conversation to the 'Times' newspaper. He felt that Croatian aims were to partition BiH and he wished to alert the world to this. He further believes that this warning helped the international community to restrain Croatian actions in BiH.

But Ashdown got it wrong. Operation Storm was not a Tudjman/Milosevic deal but something determined by the US. The US had trained Croatian forces for Operation Storm in order to change the balance of power and save BiH. Not only did they give the green light for the operation, they also provided aerial reconnaissance intelligence. They "urged" the Croats to take towns such as Sansik Most and Prijedor "before the Serbs regroup" according to US official Richard Holbrooke's memoirs. It was they that determined the final goals, ordering the Croatian offensive in BiH to halt - and that had nothing to do with Ashdown's "warning".

Furthermore, the international community were aware of Operation Storm before Ashdown's intervention; as the Milosevic trial has revealed, the Serbs were tipped off by a European source before it occurred. If it was all a deal, why did they need to be tipped off?

The evidence in the public domain about US involvement in Operation Storm effectively undermines Ashdown's theory of a Tudjman/Milosevic deal. In fact, Tudjman's comments to Ashdown actually confirms that; his comments about retaking occupied Croatia make perfect sense in light of events. He made no mention about annexing half of BiH to Croatia during Operation Storm for the very good reason that that was not what was planned - the US would hardly allow it.

The judges in the Blaskic trial accepted Ashdown's theory as fact. That looks very dubious now.

Paddy Ashdown no doubt made an honest mistake. But it is past time that the mistake was recognised.

 

© Brian Gallagher

My 'Viewpoint from London' column appears fortnightly in the Australian 'Croatian Herald'.