The social engineering project of eliminating 'nationalism' - about as likely to have been successful as telling Scots they are not Scottish - is over.
VIEWPOINT FROM LONDON
OUTBREAK OF DEMOCRACY IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA?
by Brian Gallagher
The Croatian Herald, Australia No. 978 - 8th August 2003
A recent article by the European Stability Initiative ( ESI ) compares the international governance of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the Office of the High Representative - Paddy Ashdown - to Britain's rule in India. The article has provoked much controversy. What the report and the responses of the various actors involved truly signify however, is that international policy in BiH has failed. i.e. the strange social engineering project against so-called "nationalists" has not worked and that the peoples of BiH should start to run their own affairs.
The ESI article - and an open letter to Paddy Ashdown by its authors - essentially points out the undemocratic nature of BiH; the firing of politicians who fall out of favour and the fact that BiH institutions are unable to hold Ashdown accountable and so on. Politicians have to be careful in what they do in order not to be removed - preventing them from developing an independent policy agenda.
Ashdown has responded by saying the people of BiH support the involvement of the International Community, pointing - somewhat dubiously - to opinion polls. Truly accountable rulers can be removed by the people in elections. BiH citizens do not have that option. However, what is interesting about Ashdown is that he has made it clear that the International Community will be leaving soon and that he wants to leave BiH in a fit state. He has also recognised the outcome of the latest BiH general election - the 'nationalist' parties won - reportedly in the face of US opposition.
Many will remember the rigging of the 2000 elections to ensure the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) was kept out of power; that did not happen when they won the Croat vote this time round. This is not too surprising; Ashdown would have been in serious trouble with the British press if he tried to do any different. His devolutionary and democratic rhetoric are well remembered by many - myself included, as a member of his party. The Serb lobby would also no doubt have had something to say; they have not forgiven him for his political interventions on BiH during the war. I have personally seen a pro-Serb Labour MP denounce him.
That said, Ashdown runs BiH. The elected politicians don't have much say; they are expected to support his reform agenda. But the principle that the winners of an election should take their places is an important one, and given what has gone before something of a huge step forward.
Clearly, Ashdown is preparing the ground for self-government - albeit on what he thinks that ground should consist of. His reform agenda seems largely based on the economy, another sign that the social engineering project of eliminating 'nationalism' - about as likely to have been successful as telling Scots they are not Scottish - is over.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) has also released a report on BiH. Perhaps piqued at the attention that the ESI has generated, they described their report as "mischievous and wrong headed". The ICG has never had much time for the democratic process as we know it in the UK, USA, and Australia to be applied in BiH. Disturbingly, they state that the High Representative "will need occasionally to ride roughshod over the norms of legality, transparency and democracy". However, even the ICG appear to be cracking - for in their recommendations they state that the international community should "accept that the nationalist parties are a natural and legitimate phenomenon in BiH".
It is clear that the social engineering project is on its way out, one way or the other. It is becoming accepted that the 'nationalist' parties i.e. those people vote for, will have to take power at some stage. This may not be a disaster. After all, the international community - which once thought Milosevic was a good bet - put into power in BiH Biljana Plavsic, a known Serb war criminal, after the war. No doubt her lenient treatment by the Hague tribunal ensured her not complaining about her former patrons.
Devolutionary and democratic policies - which Ashdown pushed in the UK - are the true key to BiH's future. A future tension will be the relative economic prosperity of the Croats in BiH as compared to the other groups - precisely the sort of problem devolutionary and democratic policies ought to address. Such a political process can only be achieved by legitimately elected politicians - not by international community diktat.
© Brian Gallagher
My 'Viewpoint from London' column appears fortnightly in the Australian 'Croatian Herald'.