VIEWPOINT FROM LONDON

CROATIA: EU OR WESTERN BALKANS EU?

by Brian Gallagher

The Croatian Herald, Australia No. 970 - 13 June 2003

 

Many people believe that Croatia may join the European Union along with Bulgaria and Romania in 2007. However, when one examines EU documents published in advance of the EU-Western Balkans Summit on 21 June in Thessaloniki a rather different and disturbing picture emerges - one not of Croatia joining the EU but some sort of unnamed Western Balkans Union. Furthermore, the Croatian government is supporting this, and is now strongly associating Croatia with the 'Western Balkans' and its problems - even to the point of Croatian minister Neven Mimica apparently suggesting a Balkan Union based on the EU.

In the run up to the EU-Western Balkan Summit a number of documents have been published by the EU. They make most interesting reading. The documents build upon previous 'regional co-operation' initiatives - meaning Western Balkans union initiatives.

On 21 May the European Commission sent a 'communication' to the European Council and European Parliament on the 'Western Balkans' -that is ex-Yugoslavia minus Slovenia plus Albania. One of the projects it wishes to develop is 'parliamentary co-operation'. It proposes the 'Western Balkan' states place all their European Affairs Parliamentary committees within the framework of a 'Balkan Conference of European Affairs Committees'. This conference would then represent these countries in dealings with the European Parliament, the national parliaments of the EU states and the EU candidate states such as the Czech Republic and Hungary.

This is a major proposal. Currently, Croatia deals with Parliaments in the EU by itself. What is being proposed means that would be replaced by a 'Western Balkans' parliamentary group. As the biggest state - if only in terms of demographics - Serbia would have the biggest representation in such a group. In other words, Serbia will have a big say in Croatia's parliamentary relations with other states. This is a clear and unambiguous move towards a political union between the 'Western Balkans', giving the lie to EU commissioner Chris Patten's recent statement that he does not wish to put the Yugoslav "jigsaw" back together. This proposal was not covered in any detail in the EU press release on the report - no doubt in order to ensure it gets up and running before Croats notice what's happening.

On the economic front, the EU sees Croatia's economy as being within the 'Western Balkans' framework. The EU discusses economic matters in their second annual report on the region. The report tends to aggregate the economic figures of the 'West Balkans' into one whole. It points out that Croatia accounts for almost half of the 'Western Balkans' Gross Domestic Product, attracts half of the Foreign Direct Investment and produces half of the exports to the European Union.

Croatia's economic performance puts it on a level vastly higher than Serbia and Albania. Common sense clearly dictates that Croatia should not be treated as part of the 'Western Balkans'. This eludes the EU. The report states, that when Serbia and Montenegro's export figures are added to Croatia's, it totals 70%. They say that "The export performance of these two countries are thus an important determinant for the development of exports from the region as a whole." Croatia's economic success is to be somehow used to benefit other countries, rather than its own citizens.

The EU trend to aggregate 'West Balkan' economic figures will damage Croatia's economic image. By averaging the figures out, Croatia's economic profile goes down, whilst Serbia and Albania's go up. Serbia, Albania etc gain at Croatia's expense. Just like the old Yugoslavia.

As for Croatia joining the EU in 2007 with Romania and Bulgaria, the EU makes no mention of this. Only a few paragraphs are devoted to Croatia's application, essentially stating that it will be treated on its merits - a less than enthusiastic response.

Surprisingly, the Croatian government is supporting all this. Indeed, they seem determined to associate Croatia with the problems of the 'Western Balkans' such as the murder of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindic and organised crime.

Croatian President Mesic co-signed with other 'Western Balkan' leaders an 'appeal' to the EU in the 22 May edition of the International Herald Tribune. Djindic's murder is quoted as being part of an organised crime threat to the stability of the region. Djindic's assassination is Serbia's problem, not Croatia's. Why on Earth would Croatia wish to associate itself with Serbia's problems? Further, Albania and Serbia are heavily linked to criminality in the minds of many in Western Europe. Croatia generally is not - quite rightly. To tell the world that Croatia shares the problems of Serbia and Albania in this regard beggars belief. The Croatian government seems to want to blacken Croatia's image.

A speech by Neven Mimica, Croatian Minister for European Integration, in March at a conference in Skopje firmly placed Croatia as part of the 'Western Balkans'. Mimica discussed 'Western Balkan' answers to policy questions. Not Croatian answers, nor even Central European answers - but 'Western Balkan' answers. He associated Croatia with Serbia's problems - the aforementioned Djindic assassination. He says that 'individual approach' is a "must" for Croatia, but then demands a 'regional platform' for the outcome of the Thessaloniki summit. He also wants 'multilateral' relations between the 'Western Balkans'.

And he also appears to want a Western Balkans structure based on the EU. He said "The promotion and strengthening of good neighbourly relations through the respect of the EU model of interdependence and interaction of strong nation states, is the valuable basis of that regional networking in the Southeast Europe". He clearly does not mean joining the EU, but some form of 'Western Balkan' version based on it. Does Mimica want a new Yugoslavia?

It was not so long ago that Croatia was promoting itself as a Central European country eager for an individual approach to joining the EU. Now Croatia is firmly promoting itself as a 'Western Balkan' country and advocating both a regional and individual approach to the EU. How long before the Croatian government stops mentioning the 'individual approach' altogether? The whole 'Western Balkan' project is being done at a steady pace - so as not to alert Croatian citizens.

A big step forward to 'Western Balkan' unity by Croatia has been made by the relaxing of visas with Serbia. The Serbian mafia will no doubt be celebrating. In due course, all 'Western Balkan' criminal gangs will have a field day operating via Croatia. Which of course will help keep Croatia out of the EU. The EU has made its concerns over crime clear in the region - but seem happy to facilitate it by encouraging freedom of movement in the region. That's not in the interests of the citizens of the 'Western Balkans' or those in the EU.

There is nothing new or secret in all this; it was signalled at the 2000 EU summit in Croatia, Croatia signed up for 'regional co-operation' - articles 11-14 -in the Stabilisation and Association Agreement it signed with the EU, and the language of 'regional co-operation' has been used for years in EU documents.

Despite that, the public talk is still of Croatia joining the EU in 2007, when clearly Croatia is being tied to the 'Western Balkans'. A change of policy is possible - those 'individual approach' remarks the EU makes as a sop to Croats could be a useful get out clause. But there is no sign of it and Zagreb is not even trying.

In Serbia, a more realistic view is evident. Zivorad Kovacevic, president of the Serbian European Movement, recently made some interesting statements. He stated that it is an "illusion" to think any Western Balkan country can individually join the EU regardless of its individual performance. He mentions a "joint identity" in the region and supports a "liberal visa regime". Sadly, Mr Kovacevic's comments are closer to EU thinking than the statements of the Croatian government. A Western Balkans Union in some form is on the cards and that is bad news on all levels for the people of Croatia.

Nobody needs to take my word for any of the above. Read the following documents for yourselves:

Croatian Minister for EU Integration Nevan Mimica's speech:

http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/esi_westernbalkans_voices_id_3.pdf

EC Commission communication to the council and the European Parliament:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/see/2003.pdf

European commission Second annual report:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/see/sap/rep2/com03_139_en.pdf

 

© Brian Gallagher

My 'Viewpoint from London' column appears fortnightly in the Australian 'Croatian Herald'.