INTERNATIONAL POLICY CHANGE FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA IN THE AIR?
by Brian Gallagher - 19 May 2003
A report on has just been published entitled 'An Assessment of the Decade of Western Peace-keeping and Nation-building in the Balkans' by A. Ross Johnson, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and consultant to the US funded Radio Free Europe.
The report is significant because it may be 'floating' policy change ideas by the international community. Indeed, Radio Free Europe has already published a commentary on it.
Johnson challenges certain policy assumptions in the region.
He questions the effectiveness of the Hague Tribunal, stating that more local involvement would be more productive i.e. let the countries concerned deal with some alleged war criminals, leaving only the most notorious suspects for the Hague.
His views on Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) - a state he does not consider to be properly functioning - are significant. He considers re-constituting the previous ethnic make-up of the country to be unproductive, believing refugees should be helped to be permanently resettled elsewhere i.e. where their ethnic kin are.
More significantly, he calls for a consensual revision of Dayton, centralising the military and intelligence functions and devolving the other state functions such as education. But if that does not work he says that the 'dissolution' of BiH must be considered. Serb and Croat regions to Serbia and Croatia, with a small Bosniak state remaining.
Johnson also considers that Kosovo should be independent of Serbia. This is all fairly radical stuff, and comes at a time when new Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic is saying that Republika Srpska - the Serb 'entity' in BiH could be merged with Serbia in the event of Kosovan independence.
It could well be that Johnson and Zivkovic are reflecting what is being quietly discussed in certain quarters of the international community. Some in the international community just want out of the region, and others no doubt believe the current policy in Kosovo and BiH is not sustainable.
If this report is indeed signalling change, then the challenge for Croats will be to see that their interests are protected.
© Brian Gallagher