VIEWPOINT FROM LONDON
'WEST BALKAN' PLAN: NEW THINKING IN THE EU?
by Brian Gallagher
The Croatian Herald, Australia No. 989 - 24th October 2003
The European Union commissioner for enlargement, Gunter Verheugen, has made statements that appear to suggest that the EU is dropping its 'regional cooperation' condition - read 'West Balkan Union' plan - for Croatia joining the EU. However, one should be cautious about this. For all Mr Verheugen's optimistic words, EU policy is still the 'West Balkan' one.
In the 9 October edition of the Financial Times, Gunter Verheugen stated that "they (Croatia) don't have to wait until other countries in the region have the same level of preparation". The FT speculated that Croatia could join the EU as early as 2008.
It appears that some in the EU recognise reality. When this 'West Balkan' nonsense was being put forward in 2000, things looked good to those in the EU who wished to stitch together a new form of Yugoslavia. The Tudjman regime had gone, Milosevic was out , "moderates" had been 'elected' in Bosnia-Herzegovina - albeit through rigged elections - and Macedonia was stable. Surely a joyful reunion in a new federation - plus Albania, minus Slovenia - was on the cards?
Well, no. In Macedonia a conflict erupted. In BiH politicians disliked by the EU came to power, ie. the HDZ and SDS. In Serbia... where does one begin? There are problems in Southern Serbia and Kosovo continues to be a major headache. The union between Serbian and Montenegro has been controversially changed. To cap it all, Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindic was assassinated - and the role of organised crime in Serbia can no longer be denied.
All this may in fact provide further impetus to the 'regional approach' - on the basis of keeping these troublesome countries out of the EU by pushing them into their own 'mini-EU'. But Croatia clearly does not have any of these problems, and people like Verheugen would rather let Croatia in as an example to the other countries. ie. you too can join - if you behave. In this way of course, the EU would retain leverage over the other countries. If Croatia were to be rejected, the other states would believe they will never join the EU - and so the EU lose a lot of influence over them.
Although Mr Verheugen's words are welcome, it is still EU governments that call the shots. Official policy is still the "regional approach" - as can be seen from the EU website. All EU countries would have to agree to a change of policy. And we can see that the United Kingdom and The Netherlands still retain a pro-Serb, anti-Croat policy. Their refusal to ratify the EU-Croatia Stabilisation and Association Agreement because Croatia has not handed over General Ante Gotovina has nothing to do with any notion of supporting war crimes prosecutors. Rather, it has everything to do with Dutch help to the Serbs at Srebrenica and Britain's de facto support for Milosevic, Mladic and Karadzic - as an astute letter writer to London's Independent newspaper pointed out recently. The British and Dutch wish to play up the notion of "all sides equally guilty" in order to divert attention from their aforementioned role in assisting Serbian genocide.
It would do no harm whatsoever for Croatia to put pressure on the British and Dutch by reminding them of such facts - they are not going to let go of the 'regional approach' easily.
In total then, there are voices in the European Union that advocate an individual approach for Croatia. It is up to Croatian politicians and diplomats to exploit these voices and make them dominant.
© Brian Gallagher
My 'Viewpoint from London' column appears fortnightly in the Australian 'Croatian Herald' and thereafter at www.croatiafocus.com